Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,889$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,668.3}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(45,668.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,262$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(162 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,082.9}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 32.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,082.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,194$ on 2020-04-22

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $208,389$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204,560.0}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(204,560.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,717$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,498.6}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(21,498.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100,757$ on 2020-04-22

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $187,327$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186,850.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(186,850.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,085$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,227.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(25,227.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $107,699$ on 2020-04-22

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $157,125$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(6.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198,303.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(198,303.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,373$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(724 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,620.9}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(22,620.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $94,426$ on 2020-04-22

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $134,638$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(3.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{156,063.1}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(156,063.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,151$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(515 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,938.3}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(19,938.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $115,804$ on 2020-04-22

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,032$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,325.3}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(38,325.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,068$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(206 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,261.2}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,261.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,863$ on 2020-04-22

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,004$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(603 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,322.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(20,322.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,937$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(54.9 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,434.6}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,434.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,517$ on 2020-04-22

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,268$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,889.5}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(27,889.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,509$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(72.4 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,565.0}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,565.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,859$ on 2020-04-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 71%
Austria recovered 67%
Switzerland recovered 52%
Germany recovered 37%
Denmark recovered 36%
Andorra recovered 25%
Malta recovered 22%
Croatia recovered 18%
Czechia recovered 9%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,785$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(216 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.6}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 24.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $313$ on 2020-04-22

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,925$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,553.2}{1 + 10^{-0.090 (t - 27.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,553.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $510$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(32 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{526.1}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(526.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,087$ on 2020-04-22

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $150,648$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{150,139.5}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(150,139.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,279$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(237 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,061.0}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,061.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45,969$ on 2020-04-22

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,108$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(650 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,020.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,020.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $384$ on 2020-04-22

Best fit exponential: \(32 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{397.1}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 24.9)}}\) (asimptote \(397.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,448$ on 2020-04-22